Spain has reached a moment few nations ever experience, standing as the clear favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup after a commanding 2-0 semi-final victory over France on July 14. The question now permeates fan conversations from Madrid to Toronto: can La Roja finally secure their second title? The final will take place on Sunday, July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, marking the culmination of a tournament co-hosted by Canada, the United States, and Mexico .
This deep dive examines Spain’s current betting odds, their singular World Cup history, the difficult path they traveled to reach the final stage, and the specific details Canadian fans need to know about watching the championship match.
The Short Answer: Spain Is the Favorite to Win
Yes, Spain is currently the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup, with bookmakers pricing them at approximately -155, which translates to an implied win probability of roughly 61 percent . Following their decisive elimination of France in the semi-finals, sportsbooks shifted Spain from a strong contender to the outright leader on the odds board. Spain will face the winner of the England versus Argentina semi-final, which is scheduled for July 15, and they hold a slight edge against either potential opponent, particularly when compared to England .
The most remarkable aspect of this campaign is Spain’s defensive solidity. Heading into the final, La Roja has conceded only a single goal throughout the entire tournament, a strike from Belgium during the quarter-final match. This defensive prowess, combined with a midfield that dictates technical control and a front line that capitalizes on errors, mirrors the dominant style that saw Spain rule international football between 2008 and 2012 .
Spain’s World Cup History: One Title So Far
Spain has won the FIFA World Cup exactly one time, securing that historic title in 2010. This single championship places them alongside nations like England, who won in 1966, and France, who captured titles in 1998 and 2018, as a nation that has won the tournament precisely once .
The count of one title often surprises observers given the sheer dominance of Spanish club football and the national team’s stylistic influence over the last two decades. While Spain has reached the quarter-final or better in other years, including 1934, 1950, and 2002, the 2010 triumph in South Africa remains the only instance where “La Roja” lifted the trophy. A victory on July 19, 2026, would double their historical tally to two .
The Last Time Spain Won the World Cup Was 2010
The last time Spain secured the World Cup was in 2010 during the tournament hosted by South Africa. In that final, Spain defeated the Netherlands 1-0, with Andrés Iniesta scoring the decisive goal in extra time to create one of the most celebrated finishing moments in World Cup history .
This 2010 victory was not an isolated event but part of a golden era that began with Spain’s European Championship win in 2008. The same core group of players, including Iniesta, Xavi, Sergio Ramos, Iker Casillas, and David Silva, went on to win Euro 2012, securing three consecutive major international titles. Since that golden run, however, Spain’s World Cup performance has been inconsistent, featuring a group-stage exit in 2014 and Round of 16 losses in both 2018 and 2022. The 2026 final represents Spain’s first appearance in a World Cup final since 2010, ending a sixteen-year drought .
Spain’s Path to the 2026 Final
Spain’s journey to MetLife Stadium required navigating a gauntlet of the tournament’s most formidable teams. They opened their knockout phase with a win over Austria before delivering a statement victory against Portugal in the Round of 16. The quarter-final against Belgium was a tighter contest where Spain conceded their only goal of the tournament, yet they still managed to edge past the Belgian side. The semi-final against France was where the run truly transformed, with a 2-0 scoreline that flipped the betting odds and saw Kylian Mbappé later cite tactical and technical breakdowns as the cause for France’s elimination .
This progression has shifted Spain from a tournament dark horse to the undisputed favorite, convincing oddsmakers that La Roja is now more likely than France to lift the trophy on July 19 .
Opponent in the Final: England or Argentina
Spain’s opponent in the 2026 World Cup final will be the winner of the semi-final match between England and Argentina, played on July 15, 2026. Both nations have navigated strong tournament runs, and Spain holds similar odds against either side, appearing as a slight favorite over England and roughly even against Argentina according to current sportsbook pricing .
Regardless of who advances, the final will feature a heavyweight matchup. It could be a tactical rematch of classic battles between Spain and England, or a clash with Argentina, a nation still built around one of the most decorated generations in the sport’s history .
Current Betting Odds for the 2026 World Cup
As of this week, Spain is priced at roughly -155 to win the final, cementing their status as the clear favorite . This represents a massive shift from earlier in the tournament when France held the top spot on the odds board and Spain was considered a strong but not top-tier contender. The semi-final victory over France was the turning point that vaulted Spain into the number one position on most major sportsbooks .
The primary driver of this odds movement is Spain’s defensive record. Conceding just one goal across six matches is an extraordinary statistic at this level of competition, and it has propelled Spain from a mid-tournament outsider to the team most likely to win the championship .
Key Players Fueling Spain’s Success
The 2026 Spanish squad combines experienced internationals with a new generation of attacking talent that has sharpened the team’s edge in the final third. This attacking evolution is paired with a defense that statistically leads the tournament in goals against. The balance between a possession-based midfield and disciplined defensive structure links this team directly to the title-winning 2010 side, providing the clearest reason why Spain is viewed as capable of ending their sixteen-year wait for a second star .
How Canadian Fans Can Watch the Final
For fans across Canada, the 2026 World Cup final begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 19, 2026. The match takes place at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, which is located just outside New York City and falls within the Eastern time zone that most Canadians observe .
The game will be broadcast live in Canada on CTV and TSN, with streaming options available through Bell Media platforms. Because Canada co-hosted matches alongside the United States and Mexico, this final represents the culmination of a World Cup that played out partly on Canadian soil for the first time .
Final Verdict: Can Spain Win the 2026 World Cup?
Based on current form, betting odds, and an unparalleled defensive record, Spain holds the strongest position of any remaining team to win the 2026 World Cup. A victory on July 19 would secure Spain’s second title, sixteen years after their only previous triumph in 2010. While international finals often humble favorites, Spain enters this match as the team to beat for the first time since Iniesta’s extra-time winner against the Netherlands .
Frequently Asked Questions
How many World Cups has Spain won?
Spain has won one FIFA World Cup, which occurred in 2010.
When did Spain last win the World Cup?
Spain’s last and only World Cup win was in 2010, where they beat the Netherlands 1-0 in the final.
Is Spain favored to win the 2026 World Cup final?
Yes, as of the semi-final stage, Spain is priced as the favorite at roughly -155, ahead of both potential final opponents, England and Argentina.
What time is the World Cup 2026 final in Canada?
The final kicks off at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 19, 2026, and will air on CTV and TSN in Canada.
